How IS recruits

IS, or ISIS or ISIL or Daish, is a phenomenon of our time. I find it hard to know how dangerous it is, since our lens into it is probably so coloured by propaganda sponsored by western states or by extreme fears fomented in our media. But it feels real enough. The vacuum that was Syria, Sunni Iraq, Libya, Yemen and a few other places was always likely to lead to various shades of lawlessness and quasi-government. IS has been clever enough, and somehow attractive enough, to bring together the disaffected in all those places under a single banner.

Again, just how unified that banner is gives me grounds for skepticism. It suits our own governments well to conflate the rebels under a single brand since that way the military lobby can argue for an aggressive reaction. IS has purloined some of our own business language, using terms like franchises, to give the impression of commonality. Apart from the core group in Syria and Sunni Iraq, I have my doubts.

But one facet of IS has caught my attention in recent weeks. As well as western business language, IS has seemingly also taken to some other modern inventions, notably the use of media and especially modern social media. IS manage to spread terror in its targets by its horrific actions and threats, but these are somehow magnified, compared with earlier groups such as Al Qaida, by its posting of these things on youtube videos accessible to all.

I can understand this and even grudgingly admire it, in the same way that part of me can’t help but acknowledge the sheer audacity and operational effectiveness of 9/11. But what I struggle with is a statement frequently heard in our own media (propaganda inspired or not): that social media gives IS an edge in recruiting.

This repeated claim has made me think. From my own comfortable, middle class, middle aged lens, I could not square this circle. At least my lens is not a usually a complacent one, so I was able to look beyond the propaganda (or otherwise). Think about it – what does IS seem to advertise for a potential recruit? Probably an early death. A regime of total intolerance, built on physical power and punishment. The chance to partake in the killing and repression of others. Tribal power bases, with no female emancipation whatsoever and a regime of brutal hardship and denial. All of this is crystal clear in the so-called recruitment material in youtube – I think my prospectus is pretty accurate. Who on earth could possible find this attractive?

So I try to get myself into the mind of a target recruit. I will be male, a Sunni Moslem, living in a western country such as France, with ethnic roots in an Arab one such as Egypt. I am probably between sixteen and twenty-two. My parents or maybe my grandparents came to live in the west.

Boys of that age have always rebelled and joined grand causes, from the days of the French foreign legion or the gold rush. Every society has its outcasts. In the US many become cyber-trolls and a few might become serial killers. Society even relies on its young males to be somewhat gung-ho, so the military is attractive to enough of them as an option. In other cultures, rebels can end up in gangs or tied up with drugs.

A bit of rebellion is good, as far as it allows the boy to start thinking and making decisions for himself and beginning to face the consequence of actions. I have a theory about societies that stifle rebellion, such as the Philippines, where many boys are still very close to their parents and acting as altar boys into their twenties. Too often, the rebellion still comes along, and the later it is the more damage it generally does.

So we should not be too surprised by teenage boys choosing actions precisely to annoy their parents and so-called betters. But the IS offer is still pretty extreme, the consequences are plain for all to see, even impressionable kids.

Rebellion often comes from confusion. All teenagers face puberty, with new bodily sensations and societal expectations, while comforts such as parents seem to have lost some credibility and peers encourage new groupings. And confusion may be the key to understanding these kids.

The parents may have come to a new country, yet don’t seem to fit there or to be happy. They talk of the good things back home, but gloss over the bad things. The kids wonder why there are here and not there, especially as peers don’t fully accept them. Where is home?

The mosque is a complete mystery. The preaching talks of tolerance but seems to demand confrontation, even with other branches of the same faith. A lifestyle is recommended that few seem to follow, and those that do follow it don’t often feel like role models. The attitude to women and homosexuality seems to be out of touch with the world outside.

Then there is the school or college. People look askance at Moslems, there is a fear and a lack of due respect. And here the inconsistencies about women and sex are even more confusing to these growing bodies and minds. Women are meant to be demure and covered, yet those of other cultures stride around practically naked, and can deem liberated by it. Social media flirting is a complete mystery in the environment, and can feel shameful. If I am confused, my sisters seem even more so.

Finally there is the world outside. Back home there was a clientist regime holding back ordinary people, supposedly following Islam but buying weapons from the US as fast as it could. Then there was a so-called revolution, but a year later a new regime seems as bad as the old one. Most of the world paint Moslems as uneducated despite the Arab lands being the cradle of civilization and much of science. Politicians in France or the US talk of freedom yet demonstrate something very different. Some distant relatives are starving in refugee camps or trying to get on a boat across the Mediterranean. Another relative was killed, seemingly at random, by a US drone, a continuing practice that is hardly ever mentioned in the west.

All this must scream confusion across a whole generation of kids. Most will find a

relatively harmless way of rebelling and getting through it and emerging as good citizens and parents. But we should not be surprised if some don’t. And now I think I understand it better. The social campaigns of IS at least offer simplicity, a chance to stop the inner screams and confusion.

The kids are like western kids in many ways. They have the benefits and problems of social media. They play thoughtless games on their devices glorifying war and death and heroism, and see Hollywood movies of the same ilk. Fame seems to be available to all.  Some will see a chance to star in their very own movie.

So what does this suggest as solutions? Trying to bar or counter IS social media propaganda would surely be counter-productive. Branding Islam an enemy and using war talk will only goad them on. The goal must be to try to create a more positive alternative narrative for these kids.

That is not easy, but looking at each area of confusion there can be some ways forward. Somehow helping the parents and the mosques to make more sense of the contradictions would be great – Islam could really do with a figure like Pope Francis. Encouraging integration gently, through things like cricket and better- integrated schools, could go a long way. I read that taking lead out of petrol was a driver of reduced hooliganism, since lead made young male brains more volatile – perhaps another such opportunity is out there somewhere.

Best of all would be some more positive prospects, for college and jobs and housing and for the next generation, but that is not easy either. To their credit, many in the UK have spotted these opportunities and are painstakingly working to improve things, and these people deserve our support.

At a macro level, the trade offs are no easier. Syria can only be left to solve itself. The Sunni-Shia split will probably get worse before it gets better. Fewer drones and more dialogue and more support for building institutions will pay off eventually. The deal with Iran is a good start, assuming the cretins in congress don’t block it.

So IS social media is really no more powerful than earlier messages to rebels, be that flower power or Hitler youth. Some boys will want to rebel. The way forward is to provide a more attractive alternative narrative for vulnerable kids, tough as that can seem.

I’m pleased that I took time this week to try to put myself in the shoes of others – it helped me see this issue in a completely new light. I was helped by the movie "Four Lions" that I saw recently, a wonderful, funny, satire about young Moslems in the north of England, which captured the confusion and contradictions beautifully. 

Sleepwalking through History

On holiday, I read the excellent analysis of the run up to World War One, The Sleepwalkers, by Christopher Clark. It was not an easy read, dense with detail and names and rather long, but I enjoyed it nonetheless. The strength of the book was its refusal to be sensationalist. Characters were explained not in terms of good and evil or smart or dumb, it resisted the urge to become a detective story, and the book also avoided oversimplification.

What emerged was a picture of great complexity. Not only were the relations of many great powers intertwined, but smaller powers had a role as well. Within each power, individuals approached situations with their own slant, influenced by their own perception of national priorities but also personal factors. The media played a key role, as did cultural factors inhibiting clear communication. In an age before e-mail or easy plane transport, time delays played a part as well.

Clark paints an exquisite picture of an earlier time. Characters are impetuous, pompous or plain dumb. Many owed their jobs more to breeding than talent. The Kaiser seems close to certifiable, and we forget that he was cousin to the British king and Russian Czar. The pages of the book are sprinkled with photos of the main characters, often sporting ridiculous regalia and facial hair. But don’t read this book looking for a light comedy or detective story – these facets are not central.

The book does try to explain how the First World War came about, and finds a few root causes. The conflict was far from inevitable, but became steadily more likely owing to a combination of historical trends (such as the decline of the Ottoman’s) and moves with unintended consequences. Somehow a patchwork of interlocking alliances became two opposed blocs, step by step. Most striking is how little skill any player displayed for placing themselves in the shoes of their potential adversaries. Intentions are consistently misjudged, and demands made of other countries that just a little thought could have been seen to be impossible to fulfill.

The book also tries to derive lessons from 1914 that could be applied a hundred years later. Many have compared the current situation around the South China Sea to the European web of alliances of a hundred years ago. But such parallels are always partial and the lessons are always nuanced as well.

What is clear is that wars could happen by accident then and can happen by accident now. Fallible humans, ambiguous goals, culturally inept communications, and especially irrational fears still play a full role in international affairs. The key players may not be Barons and Lords any more but are often just as incompetent and probably even more stressed. While modern communication is faster, it is not necessarily clearer, and human nature always pushes decisions up against deadlines anyway.

I have tried to draw some of my own conclusions from the book. The first is a repeating theme of mine, that of ignorance. I studied this period at school and have subsequently read more about it, but I found myself woefully ignorant of anything resembling a full picture. The formal annexation of Bosnia, the Italian invasion of Libya, the crisis of Agadir: I had vaguely heard of all of these incidents but with no concept of their wider significance. I knew little or nothing of the relevant personalities, or of the political context aside from Britain’s.

I find ignorance a wonderful concept to embrace, and love to be reminded of my own ignorance as often as possible. It keeps me humble and also hungry to learn. What a blessing it is to know that there is enough interesting knowledge out there to fill a thousand or even a million lives, the opportunity to learn is truly endless, individually and collectively. This knowledge also gives me hope for future generations to continue to progress.

Much of my own limited knowledge of the period came from school, and I should note that the conflict was only sixty years ago then, so perspectives were narrower and more patriotic. I should imagine my knowledge of the Second World War is even more coloured for the same reason. As I learned it, characters tended to be either heroes or villains, and the reality is never so simple.

A second lesson is mentioned in the book. It is noted how certain formulations of words can take root and become unchallenged through universal usage. South Slav unity became seen as a reasonable goal in this way, despite it being almost meaningless as a concept. By referring to alliances constantly as defensive, we con our own people, we usually will misinterpret the impressions of others, and we lull ourselves into believing things are less dangerous than they really are. Sound bites and simplification make good journalism and good politics, but they carry significant dangers.

Such laziness is even more prevalent today, especially in the US. Everyone celebrates their freedom without really pausing to consider what it means and how others may be less (or more) free. Putin is displayed as a villain from the Hollywood movie, stifling any sensible thought while also potentially understating his potential for harm. Iran is usually referred to as a sponsor of terrorism, whatever that may actually mean. What is terrorism? Can any nation really claim not to sponsor terrorism?

In the same vein, consider China and its peaceful rise, a ubiquitous but poisonous phrase. The Chinese people believe it and view all the actions of their government through that lens. The Chinese leaders believe it too, and then assume that other nations believe it too, so will not attribute any other intent to their actions. Remote nations may also be too slow in challenging an aggressive intent.

A third lesson is a reminder of the law of unintended consequences. The book brilliantly links seemly independent events, and attributes actions to previous sleights. This feels an accurate description of how things actually occur and how we think. In our personal lives and in our work, we should always assume that anything we do or say will have some consequences that we fail to predict, and be ready to respond when that occurs. That is not a justification for inaction – that can have a consequence too. It is just a reminder to be ready, and perhaps also a message to try to see the world through as many pairs of eyes as possible.

The final lesson is the benefit of complexity. Most of us try to simplify our lives, for good reason, it helps us to find a way forward. It is right to try to reduce complexity, but we should always be aware that things are more complex than we sense, and also note that complexity can be our friend. If there are ten great powers (or for that matter ten family members or business partners), it is usually better that each has a complex relationship with each of the others rather than a simple structure of five versus five. Five versus five often leads to open confrontation. Complexity leads to something more incremental.

So if Obama fails to close Guantanamo or cozies to up Saudi Arabia, we should give him a break and even quietly celebrate. Politics is a complex thing filled with trade offs, some of which we can see and many of which we can’t. And it is just as well that is true, or we might have even more wars. The same applies to your CEO, and probably even to your father.

So, celebrate ignorance and complexity while being suspicious of sound bites and aware of unintended consequences. That doesn’t sound like a recipe for winning Republican primaries or even getting elected as a CEO. Which may help to explain many things about our world, and how much further it still has to improve.

Five Years Retired

Five years have now passed since I handed in my ID card and left the Shell building as an ex employee, a couple of weeks before my fiftieth birthday. At the time, I remember feeling slightly frightened. But it has turned out to be a good choice for me.

I have never been tempted to look for full-time work since. Indeed, there has not been a single day when I’ve missed being in full-time work, in any way at all. Further, I don’t recall being bored at all or of lacking stimulation. Of course, we all get a little bored while waiting for a delayed plane or standing in line at the DMV. But there has been no full day of boredom, no day of seeing time stretch out in any way that was not welcome.

I have worked, and even been paid for it sometimes. One complete surprise has been that work has sought me out, in all cases via old friends and contacts at Shell. When the chance has come I’ve usually said yes, and generally gone on to enjoy it, though I know I would be completely fine if no opportunity came again.

When people ask how I fill my time, I often laugh and then try to explain and then wonder myself how the list of things I come up with can possibly fill all the time that it does without any boredom. Adding up reading, writing, walking, swimming, eating, household chores, volunteer work, paid work, regular appointments like singing and dance lessons, and trips for movies or shows, it amazes me as well how full the weeks seem. I have a siesta most days as well.

What takes a while to reconcile is that people in regular work do all of those activities as well. The main difference is that most souls have to try to squeeze these activities into busy lives, while I have the luxury of giving them all the time they deserve and enjoying them. The first hours of the day, getting up slowly and consciously enjoying breakfast and coffee rather than wolfing them down, exemplify the difference, but the same applies to all of the things on the list. I still shop quickly, but I make sure I mix in a visit to the coffee shop and some reading.

I can also plan my week in a different way. I can do all the chores and many of the other solo activities during the day, freeing up more evening and weekend time for the family.

I guess none of this will come as a major revelation. When considering retirement, pacing activities and family time are benefits most of us will think of in advance. We’ll also be able to work out whether the changed tempo, increased family time and greater responsibility for our own calendars is something that fits our life circumstance or personality or not. I acknowledge that early retirement is not for everyone. I also acknowledge the obvious truth that most people do not have the financial luxury of being able to afford such a choice. Many of the joys of the slower tempo activities could turn into nightmares if accompanied by anxiety about money.

I’ve tried to come up with some other benefits, ones that might not be so obvious to people contemplating a life change. I also tried to come up with other downsides – but couldn’t think of any.

The first benefit is a big one – health. In Shell we sometimes did an exercise called GAPS, where G was for goals and we had to list half a dozen key goals for the coming years. I was always amazed how everyone concentrated on work goals, and I remember starting my grid with Be Fit at 55. Well, soon I will be, and, compared with before, I am.

Of course accident or diagnosis could change my life overnight, but I am sure I feel better than I did five years ago. I still sleep really well, have great vital signs like blood pressure and rarely get sick. But five years ago I was frequently extremely tired, and frequently had a pain around my right shoulder. No longer – the pain just vanished about a year after I retired. Now whether that is because of a more healthy lifestyle, or finding time to swim twice per week, or just avoiding carrying computer bags around offices and airports I don’t know, but whatever the cause, being without pain is a massive life benefit. Until thinking for this blog post, I had not made the connection.

The next benefit is options or flexibility. When we contemplate retirement, many of us can conjure up some passions or dreams to pursue. What we might ignore is that retirement creates the possibility of adventures that we can’t foresee or conjure up. For me, a big adventure has been moving to New York City. I hadn’t made the connection that this became possible only because I was retired. My wife could look into jobs in New York without the huge constraint of my own work location. At the time, we talked long and hard about whether or not New York was a good option for us, and we are both pleased that in the end we went for it. If I had been still in full-time work, the conversation and probably the outcome would have been very different.

New York has been the biggest option made possible by retirement, but lots of smaller options have been unleashed as well. None of the work I’ve accepted could have been taken on in parallel with a full time job, nor would the extent of the musical adventures I’ve taken up. My family has also had options created by the absence of a constraint from my work.

The third benefit I have identified is perspective or distance. I believe I am able to observe the world from a more complete vantage point by being retired, and to observe myself and others inside that world better as well. I think this comes from the luxury of time. When working, a lot of our attention goes on work concerns, and most of the rest of our attention goes onto activities that we have to squeeze in around work commitments. What time is left? I believe we become so immersed in the present that we can lose a wider perspective, that wider perspective that can give us knowledge, serenity, spirituality and stronger relationships, including with ourselves.

My example for this is the same GAPS grids we used to do at work. Life goals are typical of something that requires perspective. They require time and strong self-knowledge, and clarity of vision without too many immediate constraints obscuring it. I look at my own life goals at forty-five, and see a pattern of someone stuck in the moment. True, fit at fifty-five showed some perspective, but nothing like enough. I am probably typical in having shown little perspective in managing my own life through my thirties and forties. The goals I set at fifty showed more balance and self-knowledge, and the outcomes have been stronger. I’m even more optimistic for the next set.

When I chose to retire, I was able to identify some obvious benefits. There were passions I would have time to follow, many everyday things I could enjoy more, and gifts I could offer family and others. That has all come to pass. But I didn’t really consider the three huge benefits of health, options and perspective, at least not to the extent that they have come into play. Each has been a magnificent blessing for me.

What might others take from this? Well, early retirement is not for everyone. First, even the opportunity requires some rare financial blessings. But, when that grounding is in place, who will derive most pleasure from an early retirement? I think the keys are to have passions and ideas, and also strong enough core relationships, especially with a life partner, so that more time becomes a blessing and not a curse. With that strong starting point, the additional benefits can only make a good thing better.

If that does not yet describe you, then you might be better carrying on with full-time work. There is nothing wrong with that choice, since work carries many wonderful benefits as well. But then, the end of full-time work comes to most of us in the end, for many earlier than we expect. So it would be a good idea to set a life goal now to shore up those key relationships and to develop those passions. It is far from simple to have the perspective to see that, and then the space to implement it. But the costs of leaving that too late could be enormous, while the benefits can offer blessing after blessing.