Some predictions

Every so often I like to set myself up for future ridicule by trying to predict how things might change. It is nearly thirty years now since I joined the workforce. There were no computers, no mobile phones. No one ever mentioned climate change (but everyone still talked all the time about the strange weather). My Dad died aged sixty six and people thought it was an average sort of score. Until I went to London I had hardly ever met any dark skinned people.

So, the last thirty years have seen dramatic change, more than any in human history. The Economist and others now herald the start of what they call the Anthropocene, or era where humans themselves are the prime determinants of planetary evolution. How might things look thirty years from now?

Some things are well documented. The human race will continue to grow. The climate will have changed a lot, or at least most people think so. Asia will dominate economically, and Africa will be the rising star. We will live longer, and work longer.

But that is too easy – it just takes a current trend and extrapolates. Here are some other predictions, many of them also building on current trends, but maybe more daring in sketching outcomes. Generally, I look to sciences or disciplines which are newer or seem less fully determined. IT and communications, and climate geography are obvious examples, but I think this description also applies to economics and medicine. Finally, there are the results likely socially from other trends.

In medicine, I still contend that we know almost nothing. Just consider your last trip to your GP, or the last sad story you listened to of a friend with symptoms who was shuffled from expert to expert but without any diagnosis, let alone effective treatment, forthcoming. My guess is that in thirty years we will be able to self-diagnose and self-treat things that seem incurable today. Most folk will still have good quality life aged a hundred, and some might make 130.

Where will we see most effects? Some will be in classical medicine for sure, with everything from cancer to common colds losing their sting. But I fancy even bigger changes in three other areas.

First, there will be a step change in our understanding of the mind. This could radically alter our ability to conquer things like depression or addiction, and also make a difference to our social skills and empathy. Imagine the value in that. It is not so unlikely, already scientists are making amazing progress in understanding these things, and remedies will not be far behind. Here also I believe globalisation will help, as the mysterious, mainly mental, benefits of Asian and homeopathic remedies will start to be understood more widely.

Second, there is cosmetics. Laser eye surgery is already fool-proof, though so far only for short sight. It may well be possible to routinely operate on new-borns (or maybe adolescents) to give them cost-free perfect eye-sight for life. Why not? And perfect hearing too – I would love that one. We will be able to change our looks, and probably be able to take pills to sort out obesity and other things we don’t like about ourselves.

The last medical area is pre-birth. Sex selection at conception may become possible. Radical reductions of disabilities certainly will. This last one is an ethical minefield, and have threatening side effects, but the march of progress will be relentless.

The next discipline which is ripe for progress is economics. I studied this in the seventies, and it was clear than that what it said in the textbooks fell woefully short of describing reality. Since then, the textbooks have been re-written at least twice more, yet we still know nothing. My guess is that in thirty years they will look back at the 2009 banking crisis (and the 2012 one?) and cringe at the appalling policy mistakes born of crass ignorance. Economics feels somehow solvable, and I sense we are close to some powerful solutions. Of course, politics will still get in the way, but my feeling is that huge progress is possible, with enormous potential benefits for everyone.

Next, geography, specifically climate geography. I am an optimist on climate change, not because of any faith in humanity or politicians to change habits, but because of the potential of science. In thirty years we might be able to actually control a lot of the weather, and deal with (at least for now) annoying things like pollution. There may be solutions there way outside our current blinkers, and desperation may well guide us to them. Any wouldn’t it be nice if it was always sunny but not too hot on our European summer holidays?

IT and Communications will of course continue to evolve at a rapid pace. One future trend will be the use of voice and even mind to send signals. Maybe we’ll all be walking around with a I-pad cum I-pod cum I-phone somehow secreted about our person with no need for screen or keyboard. I have predicted before that live culture will become available personally, and I saw last week that the New York Opera has started to sell live computer feeds of their shows. Why not? Better to get 50 cents from 1 million people than 100 dollars from just 1000. They can have both. And I look forward to enjoying such things in the Algarve.

Lastly, what about social evolution? I think many of the established norms of how we live will break down. Already there is a blur between work and retirement, and in future the whole concept of work will become less well defined. We will work for many employers on spot type contracts doing things in our own time and place. I also wonder if the institution of marriage will not fray further, as it is a bit of an artificial construction linked to child-rearing, and child-rearing will become a smaller share of our lives.

Linked to the two trends above, the concept of residence will become more fluid, and more of us will divide our time between different places. The bureaucracy to support this cannot come soon enough for me: yesterday I tried to renew my Dutch driving licence, as a Brit living partly in Portugal. The lady behind the desk was very pleasant, but defeated. Finally, sexuality will probably become more fluid too. Who knows, life in the 1960’s might turn out to be a rehearsal for life in the 2040’s – with many of the same people alive to enjoy both!

All of this is wild speculation, and much of it pure nonsense. But I find it fun, and recommend this exercise. One technique I have used in called Clashing. In that you don’t just look at one trend and consider its evolution, but you consciously look at two trends together. That opens the mind to a wider set of possibilities.