The Economist had a characteristically well-researched and thought-provoking piece this week about global innovation. It debated whether things had slowed down. After the industrial revolution came all sorts of change that profoundly affected lives. The information revolution has arguably not done the same – yet. I loved a graphic which plotted the profiles of the two changes against each other, which indicated that a major spurt in the quality of our lives maybe just around the corner.
This sort of thing is hard to measure. As usual, the Economist did a great job, but conceded that a big part must be subjective. So I thought I would look at life (in the West) one generation ago and two generations ago, to see if I saw faster progress in the first or second period, while also making some guesses for the next thirty years. Coincidentally (or not?) 1950, 1980 and 2010 were all periods of austerity. In 1950 there was still a hangover from the war, and in 1980 a hangover from the stagflation and breakdown of social contract. 2010 saw us all paying for the finance industry’s folly. I wasn’t alive in 1950, but I can probably extrapolate from early memories and stories from others.
Let us start with life at home. Between 1950 and 1980 the big change was in the basics at home. Families gained many square metres, and acquired central heating and a well-functioning kitchen. This has to be a bigger change than between 1980 and 2010, where the main improvement is in marginal stuff like TV’s and computers. I predict the next thirty years might see accelerated change, with robots consigning much household drudgery to the history books.
For life at work, let us divide office jobs from manual ones. In the office, actually I am surprised at how slow change has been in both periods. The space, the contract, the relationship with the boss, assessment and roles have changed remarkably little. In the latter period though two things stand out. Nowadays people are less wedded to one firm. And communications and IT and made work global. Even thirty years ago, stuff went by mail and teleconferences were unheard of. Office life then was amazingly insular: no longer. In the next thirty years, I predict bigger changes. I expect we will all be contractors rather than employees, and work less rigid patterns.
Manual type work changed more in the first period through automation. But then in the second period it tended to be eliminated or at least moved overseas, so perhaps that is an even bigger change.
Next take health. It is hard to credit, but as recently as 1950, new-borns and their mothers sometimes died, everyone smoked and the atmosphere was full of lead and smog. That had all changed by 1980, and life-expectancy continues to rise as a delayed effect. But now we have all these old people, but haven’t managed to sort out how to pay for them or how to give them fulfilling lives. So I’ll say that progress has slowed. Social changes and personalised medicine have an opportunity to accelerate progress again in the next thirty years.
Travel and communications have changed the most, and here the most recent thirty years have seen most progress. True, compared with 1950, 1980 saw package tours and reliable cars. But since then things have exploded, with a much larger world more easily accessible. The prospect of choosing to live out of your home country was daunting only thirty years ago. Unfortunately, we still have road and airport queues, and daft security restrictions. In the next thirty years driverless cars could be real game-changers. Not quite beam me up Scotty, but not far off.
Social changes have been faster recently. Arguably, 1950 and 1980 were both characterised by class and prejudice, whether gender, age, race, sexual preference or upbringing. Also, mental illness and abuse remained hidden in families. By 2010, much of this has been swept away, a major achievement. That footballers, of all people, could be walking off pitches because of a few racists is a triumph. The (western) world for gays now is a wonderful one compared with in 1980. Even divorcees or so-called illegitimate children used to have a tough time only thirty years ago. Things have gone so well, that perhaps further gains until 2040 here could be minimal.
Education has changed surprisingly little. True, we moved from a classed based system in 1950 to a more universal one in 1980, and a widening of tertiary education by 2010, but how people learn has stayed much the same. I expect a revolution in the next thirty years, with personalised and remote learning taking over. A current advert on US TV shows a sick child dialling in to a class. That is just the beginning, folks, and the teacher’s unions and fat college administrators in the end won’t be able to stop change.
A few more macro topics. Domestic politics has changed depressingly little. Before, people voted based on their class, now it is based on some sound bite. Again, change could be coming. International politics has changed a lot, from a war to a cold war to something of a mess full of contradictions, held back by old-fashioned views of the role of countries. But don’t hold your breath for change. Economists are just as much feeling in the dark now as they were in 1950, but I think some fundamentals may be “solved” in the next thirty years, with a massive benefit possible to all of us. Culture has changed in its accessibility, but no so much in its content or format. Apart from yet more personalisation, change could remain slow.
Finally, let us take the world in its context beyond the planet. In 1950 we had ignorance, in 1980 a few sound-bites about ozone layers and the like. The period until 2010 saw major change in knowledge and awareness, but little in action. We can only hope that the action will follow in time.
So, do I agree that progress has paused or not? The results of this little survey appear quite varied, so I devised a little scoring system, with headings scored between zero and three for each period. According to my scoring, the period between 1950 and 1980 totalled 10, and 1980 to 2010 scored exactly the same. Gains in home and health in the first period balanced gains in social things and travel in the latter period. But 2010 to 2040 scored 13. Maybe I am a wide-eyed idealist, but I really have high hopes in health, work, education and even politics and economics.
There is another factor to consider, which is to look beyond the West. Even if progress has slowed down in so-called developed countries, progress elsewhere between 1980 and 2010 has been startling. I want to shout for joy every time I see figures showing how malnutrition, early death and opportunity have been transformed across the world since 1980. Ansoff might call that market rather than product development, but for me it still counts, and is reason to be very cheerful indeed.
I also believe that the social changes in the West and the general improvements elsewhere bode well for the future. Progress used to be driven by a small elite. Now we can only imagine and marvel at what newly-empowered Chinese or Indians might come up with to change our lives, comfortable that communications technology will help progress spread ever faster.
On balance, the Economist came down against the claim that progress has stalled. I think I agree. If I stay lucky and believe the health statistics, I might even be alive at the next checkpoint in 2040, and perhaps by then society will have addressed some of its contradictions concerning the aged. As I pause from my eighth degree course and re-set my personal travel-pod, I can hope to be able to pause and celebrate those thirty years. And hope is good for progress anyway.
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