Asia's Chance

Sitting in New York or London, we can become sucked into a partial narrative for humanity. We see political dysfunction, growing inequality and a resumption of the cold war and we become depressed. But one continent has two thirds of humanity, and has altogether a better story to tell.

True, Asia has issues as well. The Middle East is part of Asia. The growing tensions between China and its neighbours are reminiscent for some of the drift of European powers into war a hundred years ago. And there is plenty of brutality and repression and abject poverty around in Asia too.

Banyan, the Economist’s Asia commentator, can be quite a negative writer. This week he or she bemoaned the state of Asean, the group of ten south east Asian nations seeking to forge common direction. Due to domestic issues, well known in Thailand and Burma but less reported in Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia and even Singapore, Asean is making slower progress than hoped for on issues such as free trade.

Well, I prefer to see a half full glass. Firstly, we should reflect on what has already been achieved within the last generation or two. Progress in Asia during that time has been unprecedented in human history. Almost all global economic growth from the last thirty years has come from Asia. That the UN has achieved such remarkable progress on its millennial goals is largely down to Asia. Child mortality, life expectancy, human rights and economic well-being have all moved in a positive direction at rapid pace, right across the continent. We might foresee war in the future, but we should also note the context of lack of war in the recent past – even supposedly civilized Europe cannot match the Asia record on that.

Further, contrary to the view of Banyan, recent events and trends seem to me to give Asia a unique chance to move even further ahead in the next twenty years or so. We can look at this country by country, in order of population, so starting with China.

The Chinese story is utterly remarkable and well documented. What is less appreciated is how the current leadership seems to be setting about fixing some of the things that made such progress hard to sustain. Quietly, the leaders are transforming the economy to be consumer led. Pensions are being introduced at sustainable dates and levels. Environmental flaws are being addressed. And the endemic corruption within the ruling system is being exposed as well. This is so impressive. Draconian measures such as a one child policy, treatment of minorities, forced relocation and frequent executions are plainly undesirable, but the regime, and even the system, has to take vast credit for a phenomenal set of achievements. I think China will go from strength to strength.

Next comes India, which has at last elected a leader with some mandate and clear agenda. The latent potential of India is like nowhere else on earth, and the social and health progress should be stunning in the next decade or two, built around such simple things as provision of proper toilets. Modi has his skeletons and his prejudices, but again the overall story is one of opportunity being grasped. He might even make progress with Pakistan.

Third in population comes Indonesia, where a charismatic and empathetic leader has recently been elected too. Finally, that country looks set to move away from the shadow of the military and oligarch families, and surely it will be the better for it, so long as there is no backlash. Jokowi’s priorities of health and education and of dragging the poor into society appear spot on, and might even work. That way lies another engine for human development and growth.

Next comes Pakistan, which is hardly a poster child. But even here signs are stronger than they were five years ago. At least the denial about military and security policy seems to be ebbing. This is another land with massive latent potential, and an upward trajectory at last seems more likely than a downward one. Then comes Bangladesh, which has improved on development goals but has broken politics, so that one might go backwards before it can resume success. Japan has its problems too, though a concerted effort to break the cycle of deflation and stagnation is having some successes. I also think that Japan being more forceful in the world has an upside too: engagement can lead to conflict, but also to Japan pulling more of its weight in supporting development elsewhere.

Number seven in population is the Philippines. Here again the president is notably less corrupt than predecessors and economic indicators at last start to point in a better direction. There is also the courage to deal with the Muslim minority issue, where some progress towards self-determination has been made. The Philippines is another work-in-progress of a good news story, in another land with huge upside.

Vietnam I know little about but does appear stable. Iran has a huge upside if only the West would have the humility to strike a deal with it – by the way the most likely legacy of the recent disgraceful Republican letter and the invite to Netanyahu is the loss of any global consensus on sanctions. People should be careful what they ask for. Turkey has had a great decade, and may even make progress with assimilating its Kurds, though Erdogan seems to be suffering from overreach lately.

Thailand is the only story of negative trends in the whole list of top Asians that I can see, and heaven only knows what chaos will ensue when the aged king dies. But next comes Burma, where challenges remain but we should remember that five years ago no-one gave any credence at all to what has emerged there. The last nation with population over 50m and number fifteen on the list is South Korea, which remains a poster child for democratic progress anywhere.

So here we have a continent that has achieved truly remarkable things in the last thirty years, yet where I see many trends seeming to make conditions even more favourable in the next period, with only one nation heading backwards and most heading forwards, some with incredible upsides. There are even good stories from lower down the list – Afghanistan has sound leadership for the first time in decades, and so does Sri Lanka.

There is evidence outside Asia of the coming Asian age. The top selective public school in New York has 70% Asian Americans – the future consequences of this sort of thing are immense.

What does this all mean? Well, overall it gives me cause to celebrate. There is good cause to believe in another burst of human development from Asia in the next generation, with benefits for all of us. With apologies for slipping into wild generalization, Asian values tend to be respectful, consensual, caring and peaceful. There is less dangerous religious baggage than in other parts of the world. On the other hand, transitions are always tough, and we cannot predict an era of blissful peace: far from it.

How should we respond, whether Asian or not? If I were younger, I’d certainly consider learning an Asian language, seeking out Asian friends and trying to understand come of the cultures better. All of us can read the news and observe current affairs aware that our lens may be out of focus or missing a dimension. We can certainly try to fight our own fears and prejudices, and avoid being party to policies or opinions that cling to outdated thoughts about white supremacy or xenophobia or “protecting national interests” – we should be especially careful what we wish for in those areas.

But mostly we can simply celebrate what could be a wonderful century for humanity, assuming we can avoid some of the transitional potholes.