Race to the Bottom

The rate of change of technology over the last thirty years or so has been faster than ever in human history. One fun game is to watch an old movie or old documentary and try to estimate when it was made. There are clues in hairstyles and fashion and even in the way people speak to each other. But recently the biggest clues have been from the technology used.

What do the telephone landlines look like? The computers? Do they have mobile phones, and what size are they and what do they look like? What applications are people using - instant messenger, text and so on – and what about the photography? The current few years will be instantly recognizable in a few years time based on almost everyone lugging around a huge smartphone and using it pretty well the whole time – except when it being recharged.

With the speed of emerging technologies, anyone trying to make predictions has ended up looking foolish more often than not. Many companies have risen too, only to fall with a wrong bet or the next wave. I have noticed a couple of trends that seem to have generally held true through the chaos.

One trend is that predictions and early use of any particular technology are always more highbrow or elitist than later reality.

It was thought newspapers would be great educators, but before long the most popular columns were astrology, celebrity gossip and soft porn. Then came TV, initially filled with plays and documentaries but nowadays giving way to reality shows, sport, more celebrity gossip, and attempts to make us shop.

Movies are the medium that surprises me the most. I love watching real films about real people doing believable, everyday real things, but it seems I am pretty well alone in this, such is the prevalence of aliens, superheroes, escapist fantasy, war and spurious violence. Oh yes, and more porn.

The internet has spawned some wonderful practical business models, from Amazon to Uber. But what have been the most popular areas? Arguably, they are shopping, music, self-promotion, gambling, dating, and, most especially, porn. Computer games can be as simple as mind puzzles, but many of the ones that have really taken off have been based on some sort of warlike combat. Even here there is exploitation of women: I hate the advertising for one popular game that seems to be for teenagers yet features a woman with a most unlikely breast size.

Perhaps most telling have been the social uses of computers and now mobile phones. The development of e-mail was not hard to predict, and even now its uses are quite traditional, with business a mainstay. But who saw instant messaging? By the time I had even heard of it, my twelve-year-old daughter was using it three or four hours a day, mainly to flirt. Then came text, which for a long time I didn’t see the point of or use, perhaps because flirting is the main use once again. This translated to photo apps, with the most interesting being Snapchat, in which photos and messages are automatically deleted after a few seconds. Why is this so popular? Because it allows for more edgy flirting, notably using nudity.

Technology has probably been one driver of the rapid pace of social liberalization over the last generation. And that change has been rapid indeed. Female emancipation, and acceptance of homosexuality, trans gender variations, and BDSM have all progressed quickly. I love watching “As Time Goes By” on PBS, not least because I see a lot of myself in the Geoffrey Palmer character. In an episode last week, one of the girls chose to immediately cut off a relationship with a guy who made a remark about wanting to be beaten, on the grounds that he was clearly a pervert. That was only thirty years ago.

I don’t intend to sit in judgment over this, though I do find it great to observe young people these days having so few hang ups about sex and relationships compared with my own experience. The trend must confuse social conservatives mightily, as they preach libertarianism while observing in horror its effects on their codes of morality. It is interesting to note that given half a chance, most of humanity will rush to commit as many of what used to be considered deadly sins as quickly as possible: perhaps the early clerics’ sanguinity about human nature was not misplaced. Considering this also helps to understand, if not support, the attitude towards the west among the most religious and conservative societies.

A second observation about the technological revolution concerns the devices involved. A repeating theme is that the core functions and equipment become ever more wonderful, but the ancillary items lag way behind.

So, nowadays we all have beautiful mobile phones. But the batteries are way too heavy and run out with annoying regularity. If I have to travel with my PC, the machine itself is light, but all the cables I need multiply the weight and the bulk. Early computers had beautiful interfaces once you were inside an application, but required gobbledygook to gain access or fix issues.

My third observation is about a neglected category of potential users, that is older people. It is understandable that designers initially focus on cutting edge applications for early adopters or the mass market. But in my view they have missed opportunities later in the game from the elderly.

Even now most mobile phones have tiny screens with even smaller keyboards, which are highly impractical for arthritic hands and failing eyes. Early computers had so many fancy functions that older potential users were deterred by the complexity.

Further, some of the greatest potential to add value comes from the old, and not only because they are plentiful and often wealthy. These new applications reading heartbeats and other medical indicators are being marketed to fitness fanatics, while the ones who actually need it are the frail. Similarly, using technology to simplify compliance with a regime for taking medication can save lives. Even leisure applications like e-mail and photos could be redesigned for older users, via a simplified device with few large buttons.

What can we learn from these trends? It may be that companies focused on ancillary features or mature users represent the best investments. Technology companies should make sure their staff does not make the common mistake of assuming all potential users are like them, in other words young and highly technical. Some voices representing other demographics would help. I am still amazed every time I open a user manual – are these things ever tested on real human beings?

The first trend also has a message about where to focus as a startup or for which startups to invest in. Choose applications that reflect humanity in its realistic base instincts rather than ones for humans we might see as more admirable or acceptable to priests. I can’t imagine where that will lead next, but we won’t have long to wait before we find out.