Time for Resistance!

The world is angry. Insults are flying, courts are busy, demonstrations are everywhere, hate attacks are increasing, and strikes are rumoured. And the inauguration was only three weeks ago!

But caution is in order. Complaining is easy, and tempting targets are plentiful. But complaining changes nothing without action. And action can also be counter-productive. Trump and his entourage are experts at playing public opinion. It is important to separate out key goals and to act towards achieving them.

To start with, is resistance even fair? Trump won the election. He has a right to sit in the White House and govern. The Republicans have a right to use their congressional majorities to pass laws as well. Just because the Republicans abused the system last year, for example on the Supreme Court nominee, doesn’t make it right to abuse the system in revenge.

But some resistance is certainly fair, and demanded by the current situation. It is always right to defend the law, the constitution and international conventions, and to hold leaders accountable to them, as well as to their campaign promises. And politicking is also fair – pointing out lies, hypocrisy, affronts to decency, and the impact of actions on voters and other stakeholders.

The challenge is to make resistance effective. Less can be more. Furthermore, it is very likely that the administration will eventually collapse without much outside help. Scandals will arise for sure. Battles will divide the executive from Republicans in congress. Many appointees are clearly incompetent as well as divisive. And Trump has a destructive habit of making unnecessary enemies. Patience is a virtue in this situation.

Thinking about this unprecedented situation, I have grouped what I see as valuable resistance under three themes. They are contingency planning, undermining the coalition, and preparing a counter narrative. So far, I see little evidence of a smart approach to any of the three themes.

Contingency planning is about avoiding global disaster. While patience makes sense in the big picture, there is a real risk that Trump will unleash lasting damage to our world while he remains in power. It is already clear that hopes that he will govern differently to his campaign are misplaced. And as his problems will inevitably mount, he has shown that his natural tendency is to double down, and he is hardly surrounding himself with wise counsel. The potential for disaster is real and frightening.

Domestically, catastrophe is unlikely. True, congress will be further polarised, the Supreme Court may be skewed and public trust in institutions will decline even further. Disadvantaged groups will suffer as well. But these things can all cycle around; indeed Trump may finally signal the nadir and prove a spur for lasting progress once he is out of the way.

The real risks are the global ones. Trump will incite wars and then escalate them. The current proxy conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran in Yemen could become a full-scale war, with Israel waiting to intervene and cherry pick. Russia will seek to bring satellite states back within its orbit. China could be lured into shooting fights over Taiwan, Japan and the South China Sea. North Korea will be goaded as well.

Global diplomats must not hope away these challenges but be ready for them. Paradoxically, I think Trump will serve the good purpose of pulling Europe back together again, once people realise their protector is no longer reliable while they squabble like kids. It is time for Europe and others to pursue active contingency plans with China and even Russia, and to be ready to show backbone in the Middle East. This applies both to the war scenarios and the climate trashing that Trump seems set to unleash. Waiting for a crisis will be too late.

The second focus of resistance should be systematic weakening of the Trump coalition. Here, the current activity seems misguided. It is all very well, and even correct, to demonstrate against Muslim bans, abandonment of refugees, and threats to LGBT and non-white rights, but the white voters in Michigan may rightly conclude that this does nothing for them, and perpetuates the belief that coastal liberals have lost the plot.

Voters are obviously a key part of the coalition – barring impeachment, the only ones to end the nightmare – so a large share of the resistance has to be targeted to influence their opinion. The challenge is tough – mid term elections always favour Republicans.

A solution is via guerrilla communication. Liberal papers and websites are targeted at educated types and are boring to many. We need some outlets that are honest but also edgy, exposing the hypocrisy of Trump, the greed of congress, and also the impact of Republican actions on white working class voters.

There is plenty of ammunition. In the last month, Republicans have tried to gut their own ethical watchdog, permitted miners to pollute streams and oil companies to pay bribes, and allowed banking advisors to act against client interest. Soon will follow tax cuts for fat cats – implying spending cuts harming everyone else. Health care will be a minefield. For sure, the Trump and Republican agendas will only harm most people who voted for them – and this harm must be exposed to them in a way they will listen. The satirical late night TV shows offer an excellent template – but again are tainted as liberal, coastal and remote from ordinary people.

There are other elements of the coalition to target. Last week, I proposed embarrassing Catholic cardinals into revolt against a leader who is the antithesis of their gospel. A few Republican senators have a conscience, so work relentlessly on them.

The best place to hurt many of the coalition leaders is in their wallet. Here is an idea. Trump has declared America first, so everyone else last. So consumers could justifiably respond with everyone else first, America last. What if Mexicans stopped drinking Coca Cola en masse? They are the biggest consumers of the stuff, and could decimate the share price overnight, and after all the stuff is only water and sugar and could easily be substituted. Globally, consumers could decide not to buy the products of those companies represented on Trump’s business advisory group. That would make them think a bit about the advice they chose to offer. Consumers can make clear they have nothing against America or Americans, just against the hateful current leadership.

Then there is the third leg about building a winning narrative. This is the real lesson of Hillary. A flawed personality and hypocritical platform will not win, even against empty populism and a bully. So where is the next Obama, the next Trudeau? Where is the honest analysis about which parts of the Sanders platform would benefit everyone except lobbyists and members of the Democrat hierarchy and donors? Where is the realisation that an empty Republican platform has control of two thirds of the governor’s mansions and what that says about Democratic candidates and campaigns? I have been heartened by some good recent articles on these subjects. It should not be hard – demographics favour progressives and the opposition will commit own goals weekly, but mid-term turnout is a challenge.

I have lost what optimism I ever had about Trump, and we are in for a bumpy ride. But, as long as we can avoid nuclear catastrophe, we have to remember than progress comes in cycles, and sometimes the worst tyrants create conditions for the best backlashes. In the meantime, let us hope that the resistance becomes smarter than we have seen so far. Contingency planning, chipping at the coalition and building a new narrative are good goals. Individually, we can lobby and hope – and cut out that Coca Cola habit!