The Dangerous Months

The Trump presidency was always doomed to slide into ugliness. The lack of any agenda, integrity or competence ensured that. In some ways, we can count ourselves lucky. Without the incompetence, more damage could have been incurred in a shorter time. But lasting damage has been done, and more will follow. I believe the next six months represents peak danger. After that, things could get better.

While I am surprised every day, in the bigger picture not all that much has surprised me. We knew that most politicians look mainly to power and hence donors, so Trump would be given fairly free rein, and where that would lead. We knew that Trump had no integrity and a dirty past that was likely to slowly engulf him once in office. We could surmise that any thoughts of a positive legacy would be subsumed by an agenda focused on revenge and money and then by survival. His base knew all about him before, so why would they desert him now?

If anything has surprised me, it has been the revelation just how appalling a manager the man is. Even mafia leaders know that you support your own team in public. The initial humiliation of Sessions was perhaps the most jaw-dropping moment so far, and we can conclude and observe just how morale and trust must be at rock bottom inside the White House, so that eventually only sleasebags remain and each of those sleasebags becomes a potential scandal.

Where does this go from here? It is spiraling down quickly, and I think the next months are the dangerous ones, but that the midterms in November will change a lot and reduce the danger level.

Why are these months dangerous? Start with personnel. Even an autocrat works mainly through a team of staff. And gradually, as the administration has become more and more toxic, even the few competent people that were initially appointed are weeding themselves out. What are left are sleasebags like Cohen and Pruitt, unhinged fanatics like Bolton and Pompeo, and a huge vacuum of empty positions. The sleasebags will cash in, while the fanatics will counsel escalation and recklessness. This is not a good set of conditions for sound decisions.

Then look to the president himself, increasingly anger and hemmed in. Mueller started with his Russia probe, but inevitably followed the trail back to the corruption and illegality of everyone around the president and his companies. This changes the game. The Republicans will not impeach, because it is not in their cynical interest to do so. The scandals will not affect the base either. But follow the money. Trump could well lose his companies, his cash and potentially his freedom, once out of office. He will become more and more reckless as this risk grows, and seek protection from backers demanding ever more from their own agendas, whether that be war against Iran or financial state capture.

Next, look at the global agenda. Everyone managed to pull together for a year or so, barring the climate change pull out (which in itself does not mean all that much), but now things are getting hotter. North Korea is a bit of a side show, and well played The Economist for admitting that it, and everyone else, underestimated Kim Jong Un. He’ll get what he wants but Trump will claim credit. But look at Syria, and who is involved and threatening each other. Israel could end up at war with Iran, cheered on by Saudi Arabia and the US, and Russia and Turkey will cause as much nuisance as they can in the carnage. This is dangerous; it can shake up global alliances, disturb markets, escalate armament and trigger more refugee crises, while of course slaughtering more innocent people. Trump needs money from supporters of Israel and Saudi Arabia, so he will make war more not less likely.

Then there is China and trade. A common factor is long-standing leaders who have the mandate and the patience to wait Trump out and take opportunistic advantage. China is top of this list. Russia, Iran and Germany are on it as well. China will act as broker with North Korea and then seek a wider accommodation with Trump, but I don’t see the humility or competence from the US to let this happen. NAFTA could be sacrificed in a fit of anger towards a new leftist Mexican leader. Then down will fall stock markets and the global economy will show its fragility again.

So we have a bumpy ride ahead. Throw in the likelihood of unexpected events, like hurricanes or new wars or shootings or Stormy stuff, and we can anticipate increased volatility from the administration, hollowed out and distracted, as it will be.

But then will come the midterm elections, and I think that will change the calculus for the real power brokers, congress and especially Republicans in congress and their donors. The donors have had their huge ugly gift in the form of the tax and regulation changes, and won’t look for more until after 2020. At the midterms, the base will still support Trump but fewer will show out, whereas the rest of the angry country will turn out to give him a bloody nose. Then we will have a Democratic house, maybe even a Democratic senate, and a president who everyone knows is out of control. And the Republicans and their donors will start to look beyond Trump and play damage limitation.

Then we could easily see a deal, never published, but a deal nonetheless. Trump will still have the threat of impeachment hanging over him, and, even worse for him, financial ruin for his companies. He will have to deal. The cost will be loss of control over administration appointments and their activities. Out will go the sleaseballs and fanatics, and in will come competent centrists. From then on, the worst of the danger will have passed. Trump will be allowed to stay in office and tweet all he likes, and his companies partially protected, but his actions will be circumscribed. Many new appointments will be military people, and it may even feel like a bloodless coup at the White House.

My guess is that Xi has worked this out. The Europeans and the UN leaders probably have too. Less comfortingly, so have Russia, Israel, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, greedy corporate sorts, the NRA, and others looking to consolidate gains while scrutiny is low and priorities blurred, and to make sure they don’t lose them once order is restored.

So probably China and the world economy will be OK. The US institutions will be battered but can be rebuilt, even if the key systems will be even more broken than before once the dust has settled. But it will take a lot of skill and luck no avoid a conflict in the Middle East, one that becomes so entrenched in the next months that it may take a decade to unravel. The coming months are the dangerous ones, and that is the greatest danger.

Smart people will also be planning for the second half of the Trump presidency. Republicans will realise that they need to build a new agenda from almost nothing. Democrats should realise that the midterms will be easy, but 2020 might not be, and focus relentlessly solutions for those voters that deserted them in 2016. Everything else is just noise.

I hope this prognosis turns out to be at least partly right. Anything is possible with this administration. All the other players are subject to all sorts of complex forces, and events can come and bite us. But, as usual, I am optimistic. In six months time, I hope I can be even more optimistic.