Donald Trump is never out of the news. If he is not being attacked or sued, he is screaming on twitter and offending anyone in his path. He described his campaign as the best value publicity stunt ever, and was surprised as anybody when he actually won. In power he has continued to treat the presidency as a mouthpiece for his own publicity.
To understand Trump is to understand only this. Many people try to divine what it is he cares about, or how he wants to change his nation. It is a fruitless search, because he cares only for his own ego, his business, his family and his survival, with his ego way ahead of all the others and the others mainly a manifestation of his ego. Hence all he is doing most of the time is massaging his ego and campaigning to extend his opportunity to keep massaging.
A good example of this is immigration. Before his run for president, Trump did not hate immigrants any more than anyone else, only those who challenged his ego. He believes nothing that he says about immigration, whether it is about the country being full or invaded or somehow threatened, or even about its religious or ethnic purity.
It is much more simple than that. Immigration is a sure fire winning issue with his base. And his base massages his ego and prolongs his power, so he uses language to agitate them and activate them. Hence the only result he wishes for is for immigration to stay in the news, to continue feeding fears and to continue being a problem. The last thing he wants is any sort of solution or policy prescription, for that would only reduce the salience of the issue.
Look at the policies actually implemented by the administration and this becomes obvious. The family separation policy kept the subject in the news. The border itself has been made into more of a bottleneck, by increasing security while constricting the capacity to process potential immigrants, hence maintaining the pipeline. And aid has been cut to the source countries to maintain the incentive for people to attempt to come in. Further, any attempt to actually ease any of these issues in congress has been blocked. It is already obvious that caravans and backlogs and cruel human stories and fear will stay at fever pitch right up to 2020 and beyond.
The other signature policy of Trump is trade, or rather bullying potential trade partners. This is also a popular choice, and neat. In the short run, there are only gains from renegotiating deals, and the US holds most of the power in such negotiations. And the results are easily spun: new NAFTA is remarkably similar to old NAFTA, but Trump can claim some kudos. So long as markets collude in believing that deals will be concluded eventually, because everybody wants that outcome, then only good can come to the Trump brand.
Many Trump policies have these themes. They are good for rousing the base, and hated by elites, they are easy to keep in the news, while little real change is either required or beneficial. They are also tough for the opposition to counter: who can’t support better trade deals, and who can be in favour of uncontrolled illegal immigration?
The other side of the ticket, Pence, is precisely the opposite. He has clear goals based on core beliefs, and he is all about engineering change, yet few of his beliefs have any popular support. So this requires exactly the opposite tactic. Trump is all noise and little action, while the Pence cabal is all surreptitious action, action with long term consequences.
The Pence faction, to its credit, is very clear and consistent about its goals. He is open about being a Christian first, a Conservative second and a Republican third. And his Christianity is of the Evangelical variety.
It has taken me a while to understand Evangelicals. I call myself a Christian, but based on a set of values in the New Testament. Evangelicals appear to discard most of these, in favour of a more literal reading, especially of the Old Testament. This leads to a strict and traditional moral code, and, even more central, a belief that Judeo-Christian people are chosen by God, superior to others, and required to prepare the world for a final judgement.
All policies derive from this. Social conservatism, small government, tough on crime, pro religious exemptions (for his own side) at home, and pro Israel and other Judeo-Christian nations abroad. Climate change is somehow seen as God’s business, maybe even necessary as part of the grand apocalyptic plan. Further, support any group who will pay money to promote those same policies, and acceptance of any tactic, including gerrymandering or voter suppression.
Of course, the problem with all these policies is that they lack popular support. Corporate money can mask this for a time with diatribes against tax, socialism, particular democrats, Muslims and so on, but the actual agenda does not lend itself for winning elections. Indeed, Pence’s own record is rather poor, usually underperforming expectations and polls. He often ends up apologising, for example when forced to withdraw some naked anti-LGBT legislation in Indiana when companies started boycotting the state.
But his movement is effective, because it has focus, money behind it and plenty of intellectual power too, including Pence himself, a lawyer. A classic case study for its success is found in its accommodation with Trump. It is a simple deal. Pence offers total loyalty, dutifully standing behind Donald whenever asked regularly defending the indefensible. Most administration officials have not lasted the course; Pence is a rare exception. In return, all he asks are a few specific policy actions. And he receives them.
Look at the lasting legacy of this administration. The Supreme Court has tilted to social conservatism, and lower courts too. Abortion faces more restrictions in many states. Big corporate money is entrenched in politics as never before. And Israel and its goals have been relentlessly promoted, from recognising Jerusalem or the annexation of Golan, the weakening of Palestinians, and the demonization of Iran. Towards the latter goal, it has involved a tactical alliance with pliable Arab nations; note the rare veto this week over supporting Saudi militarism in Yemen.
While you may share my abhorrence of the agenda, perhaps you can also share my admiration for its execution. With minimum publicity, an agenda with tiny and diminishing popular support has dominated an administration, and few have even noticed.
Trump’s so called agenda is hard to counter, but so is Pence’s. While few actually agree with his policies, most are somewhat indifferent to them, so campaigning against them can come across as unpatriotic, anti-Semitic, or simply out of tune with concerns of ordinary folk. So probably the best approach is to campaign away from both of them, focusing on pocket book issues like healthcare where neither can claim any success.
So we have an amoral narcissist with no strategy beyond power and glory, allied to an insidious strategic religious extremist. Both will leave lasting damage, one through disrespect for institutions, the other by using those same institutions. They have little love for each other and no common agenda, but have reached an accommodation that is brilliant and effective. Both are hard to counter, though one will end in jail while the other will be free to continue his crusade. Perhaps they will get four more years.
It is depressing. It is instructive. And, at the strategic level, it is admirable.
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