I am not even a citizen, and will probably not be living in the USA by the next time a presidential election comes along, but I lost a considerable amount of sleep over the last two weeks. I can only imagine how much anxiety has been afflicting people with more at stake.
After all the bluster and recounts and lawsuits and runoffs, it seems fairly certain that we will have a Biden presidency, a Republican senate, a marginally Democratic house and a staunchly conservative judiciary for the next two years. How is this likely to pan out?
First, we can all breathe a massive sigh of relief, because the Biden presidency is the key element for humanity as a whole. In global affairs four more years of Trump would certainly have put a brake on climate action, made nuclear escalation with Russia and China more likely, made countless world conflicts more dangerous, and entrenched a bi-polar economic world to stymie development for a generation. NATO might not have survived either, though I not sure how many tears I would have shed over that outcome.
With Biden at the helm, he will join all significant world leaders in stepping up efforts to mitigate climate change. The courts in the US will try to slow him down, but symbolism matters in these things and I predict a decisive shift over the next four years. Within the last six months, the EU and China have taken significant actions and Japan and South Korea have made aggressive pledges. With a positive USA, the momentum will be unstoppable, and not before time.
The China relationship is interesting. I believe a grand bargain between the USA and China is available, but I fear the window may already be closing and Biden’s flimsy political capital will not allow him to take the opportunity. A brave USA would put trade, global institutions, military balance, human rights festering disputes on the table together, and China would have the ability and foresight to come to a deal. Domestic US politics will get in the way, and, while at least things will not get worse under Biden, the opportunity for a unified world will slip away. The irony is that the world that will emerge will cement the decline of the USA for the rest of the century. Recent Economistarticles about universities, technology and finance confirm to me that the key battles are already lost.
So we can all celebrate a return to common sense in world affairs. There is also cause to celebrate that Trump’s ouster will halt the erosion of US institutions like the Justice Department. But when it comes to the domestic outlook, I am not optimistic. The most influential person in the USA over the next four years will be the same as the last four: Donald Trump.
Perhaps the most remarkable feature of the US election is how close it was. Trump made it into a referendum on himself, and then proceeded to take action after action to alienate everyone but his base. Four years in office have laid bare the manifest flaws in what pass for his policy platforms. The Democrats managed to unite behind a senile but otherwise unobjectionable candidate and to run a disciplined campaign. The Republicans are demonstrability a nasty, greedy and cynical crowd without any coherent platform. And Coronavirus was a curveball provided by fate at the perfect moment to undermine Trump’s electability. It is hard to imagine a more propitious set of circumstances for the Democrats, yet all they could achieve was a winning tie.
Democrats can justifiably moan about the unbalanced system, the gerrymandering and voter suppression of the other side and Trump’s abuse of the levers of incumbency, but a tie is still pretty shocking. How did this happen?
The answer is the Trump brand. Trump has been building his brand for ten years or so. At one point on the journey Trump took over the Republican brand. Trump’s brand is not driven by ideology or outcomes or even power. It craves respect, loyalty and adulation, and requires humiliation for those showing disrespect.
Like all good brands, this one is all about values. Values drive perceptions, which drive behaviour and build loyalty among target groups. Among the values of this brand are liberty and defending the American way of life. It is easier to list what it is against, including tax, the swamp, elites, wokeness and rules. Somehow the brand has managed to become associated with jobs and economic growth. During the takeover, the brand accepted some additional values such as extreme Judeo-Christianity and pro-lifeness.
The brand has been built via a relentless stream of communication, often flying in the face of objective truth. Twitter and Facebook newsfeeds have been the perfect vehicles, building upon what was already present, namely Fox News, conservative talk radio and certain churches.
The result of all this has been a division of the USA into bubbles that nowadays barely intersect. While those of us who follow mainstream media can barely understand how anybody could vote for Trump, just as many others, fed the unrelenting diet of the brand, have just as much trouble understanding us. They are captured; it is self-reinforcing and likely to grow further. QAnon and Pizzagate and the Proud Boys are sort of associated franchises.
We should be careful to accept that building brands is not illegal or even unethical and has been the core of politics forever. It is also not the first time that a political brand has come to be focused on an individual.
For me one of the most enduring images of Trump came almost exactly four years ago, the night of the 2016 election, when he suddenly realised he might win. I don’t think he wanted to win. Building the brand did not require winning – it would have been easier to build after losing. I have to admire how the brand has survived the scrutiny of four years in government.
Once he gets over his petulance, I think Trump will be rather happy he has lost this time. He has been preparing the ground four the next four years already. Now loyal supporters have a new sense of grievance, and spinning out the legal challenges will only grow it. This is dangerous territory: the USA is a land of many guns.
What does this mean? I think it is rather frightening. The Trump twitter feed will be the national agenda for the next four years. Republicans cannot escape and must continue to toe the line or be jettisoned into oblivion. Without the handicap of actually having to do anything or be judged by any outcomes, the twitter feed can become more extreme.
Biden has a wafer thin mandate. He faces a pandemic about to explode. 2021-2022 will be years of economic hardship. McConnell will block anything worthwhile, so Biden will be limited to pandemic stimulus and more short-term fixes to healthcare and not much else. Few will see any benefits. The twitter feed will blame him for everything. Going after Trump legally will only feed a narrative of Trump as martyr. The house may well flip in 2022, and, wait for it, Trump could easily win again in 2024. The circumstances will certainly be propitious and I fear the brand supporters will only become more loyal. All he has to do is expand his base incrementally – a few conservative Spanish-speaking memes in Miami have already showed the way. Biden will be eighty-two in 2024 and the Democratic ticket will be highly vulnerable with him or without him.
I hope I am wrong. I usually am. Plenty can change. Trump himself will be seventy-eight and I don’t think his movement will not survive him. In the longer term the next generation will be less gullible and more educated and more aware of wider issues, and we will all learn to turn social media into a force for good. But most of this will take longer than four years to have a measurable impact.
Humanity can celebrate dodging a bullet this week. I am sleeping better already. But the scenarios for 2024 feel very frightening to me.
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