Uncertainty

 There is an old cliché in business literature that the only constant in our world is change. I never found the quote particularly helpful, and I don’t really believe it either. Change does indeed come along, and we can even induce it, and it is certainly helpful to be ready for it. But there are many other constants. An example of another one is uncertainty.

 

Uncertainty is closely linked to ambiguity, and these are concepts I did find useful as a business leader. Certainty makes life easy. If a situation is clear and our expected response is clear too, then we can just get on with our jobs. But most situations are far from certain, and coping with uncertainty and ambiguity is something we can all strive to improve at. I found that engineers tended to struggle with ambiguity. If a senior manager gave a presentation, the complaints afterwards often revolved about a lack of clarity in the message. The engineers wanted to hear a clear description of a challenge, its proposed solution, and what they personally were expected to do about it. Then they could get on with what they did best, engineering.

 

But this attitude is often of limited use in the real world, and it tends to limit leadership potential as well. Many people can solve a defined challenge. Nowadays machines are rather good at it. Rather fewer people can create a plan amidst uncertainty, a plan with contingencies and with flexibility but one that still has a good chance of making progress.

 

Thinking back (a long time) to my career as a manager, I might go so far as to claim that finding comfort with uncertainty and ambiguity is the characteristic that best defines effective leadership. I also recall trying quite hard to encourage my own teams to develop this skillset. I had few tools to help me, but I would expose people to ambiguous situations and avoid giving false comfort by accepting their goal of making their lives certain as possible.

 

I have learned that becoming more comfortable with uncertainty and ambiguity is also very useful when dealing with ill health. The medical stories I hear most often from acquaintances tend to follow the same pattern. It starts with symptoms, which lead (often too late) to the door of medical professionals. The patient starts with the thought, and the hope, that the first doctor will take one look at them and immediately diagnose the underlying cause and a course of treatment. They are almost always disappointed. The initial consultation leads to tests and perhaps a referral to deeper specialists. Possible causes are ruled out, but a clear diagnosis is elusive. The symptoms may get worse despite various medications being tried. Perhaps eventually something will work, or a definitive diagnosis becomes available, but often that clarity is never reached. The fortunate patients learn to accept this frustrating reality. Despite decades, even centuries, of medical experience and research and technology, most situations are uncertain and ambiguous, and even the best doctors spend a lot of their time guessing.

 

I observe many people going through this sort of pattern. The uncertainty can seem like the hardest part. We all have some desire for certainty, even if the certainty is not pleasant. Becoming more comfortable with all the ambiguity and finding ways to enjoy life amidst all the uncertainty is a real challenge.

 

For most of the time, I have been lucky enough to follow a rather different trajectory with my cancer. True, it started with a symptom (weaker peripheral vision) and there was a long period near the beginning when the diagnosis was incomplete. But from early on I have known enough about my own illness to be sure that the longer-term prospects were bleak. Because things could have gone south very quickly, I did not become too concerned with the uncertainty, but instead, fuelled by steroids, became very active in preparing for possible early death. Then, once it became clear that the operation had been quite successful and that the radiotherapy and chemotherapy were having a beneficial effect, we were able to consciously move our planning horizon further forward, and even to focus on a hopeful present.

 

That positive attitude has been challenged during the last few weeks, after the April MRI scan revealed some new growth. Inevitably, the uncertainty affected us emotionally, since the range of possible outcomes is so large. This growth could be nothing, or may disappear, or may remain benign, but it could also develop rather quickly and dangerously. This week we visited the oncologist in a more anxious frame of mind than usual. We should not have been surprised to be told that tests remain inconclusive. Like my acquaintances, it looks like we will have to get used to this sort of news.

 

Luckily my symptoms, such as they are, remain stable. If anything, my peripheral vision is improving slightly. During chemo cycles I still have some side effects to put up with. But there are not yet new or worsening symptoms that may indicate development of the cancer.

 

But, in this phase of uncertainty, I am not immune from the rookie errors that I made before and that others seem to be afflicted by. In the early stages, I did suffer from phantom symptoms, that is imagined symptoms. Whenever anybody asked me if my hands and feet were tingling, immediately they did. Yesterday I made a classic error and referred to google. I have been told that this latest growth is close to the left ventricle in my brain. I did not even know that the brain had ventricles. Mister google told me about symptoms indicating a loss of function of the left ventricle of the brain, among them sudden loss of memory. The moment I read that my memory seemed to vanish completely. It took a while for reason to kick back in and remind me that the symptom ghost had struck again.

 

Luckily, we have enough experience now that we should be able to move beyond this sort of trap, even while the high uncertainty remains. I must follow my own business advice and find ways to become comfortable with it. After all, uncertainty is much better than certain bad news. Second-guessing everything the doctors tell us does not do any good. Mr google is even less help. And, blessed by being largely symptom-free, we can throw our energy into enjoying our lives, embracing each other and family and friends, and cherishing another trip to Europe next month.

 

Certainty is appealing. But uncertainty includes more outcomes that are better. Uncertainty is usual. We do well to embrace it as best we can.