Rioters and Teenagers

I have been surprised by some of the places that have seen street demonstrations over the last month. Egypt is no surprise to anyone after the unfinished business of the previous two years, but what about Brazil? Turkey? Even Sweden? It is almost the curse of the Economist, for those three places have had relentlessly positive write-ups over the last few years.

 

Confused, I read various accounts of causes, and tried to come up with my own analogy. Going through the balancing act of bringing up teenagers for the second time in my life, I think I have found a good one.

 

What is causing people to go out onto the streets? The articles trying to explain it have a few things in common but are often as confused as I am. I remember the UK riots of two summers ago, that sparked so dangerously from a single incident and then died down just as quickly. The consensus then was that there was no single cause, just a combination of factors coming together.

 

Everyone agrees that social media has played a practical role in sustaining the riots, making it easier for them to gain publicity and spread, allowing a modicum of planning and even of common cause. But that is like blaming the accelerant for the fire – the fire itself needs other causes.

 

One thing that links many of the demonstrators seems to be that from an independent perspective they seem to have gained a lot over the last few years. The immigrants in Sweden have been separated from their families, have to learn to live in a different culture and a harsh climate, and find it hard to gain jobs, but they seem to be plainly better off than they were back home. Their indigenous Swedish neighbours have some of the highest living standards and strongest social environment in the world. In Turkey and Brazil, a middle class has sprung from economic growth and enlightened social policies. The parents of the people complaining about bus fares in Sao Paulo could not afford buses at all twenty years ago, often walking for hours to get to work. A generation ago, not many people in Turkey had a life with enough food or work or decent houses to consider complaining about losing a park.

 

At first sight, this is a mystery. But I think it holds one key to understanding the riots.

 

In a less developed society, there are more important things to do than demonstrate. Just to eke out a living is all people have the energy for. After caring for the family, getting to and from work, working itself – often physical, and finding food, the only thing left to do is sleep and start again.

 

In this situation, there are other environmental things to prevent groups forming that might riot. Families are large, and usually multi-generational, with a strong culture of obeying elders, and often priests too. Social life revolves around family, which is invariably conservative. And social media are rarely evident. Finally, there is more to lose, since a loss of job would lead to destitution and even the sacrifice of a couple of meals can lead to illness.

 

So it is precisely because things have got better that the next generation of youths has some space and inclination to demonstrate, linking up with friends in their new-found spare time. This group will also be better educated, and follow the news and be more politically active. They will also travel more widely, and be able to see not just what they have but also what they lack that others have.

 

In this situation, a small spark can light the angry fire. The tinder will be drier if there some renewed hardship in a recession, when friends may have lost jobs. I wonder the extent to which debt or fear of debt plays a role, as the people may have used their new TV’s to swallow up adverts and to over-reach with their new-found credit lines.

 

Finally comes the insult. Politicians will have promised continued progress and then not delivered, so even an improvement may feel like a failure or a betrayal. If the elite is seen as corrupt and extravagant this feeling will get stronger. And worst of all will be any sense that the same elite condescends with an expectation of gratitude and subservience. “They don’t know how lucky they are” is likely to be met with a collective raspberry.

 

I can see most of these factors in place in Sweden, Turkey and Brazil, and start to understand how the cocktail can be explosive.

 

Running down that list of factors reminded me very much of teenagers, especially teenage boys. All of us who have been parents know that adolescence leads to new challenges.

 

Until the age of about eleven, kids stay very close to their parents and grandparents, and, occasional screams notwithstanding, they are amazingly trusting. In that cocoon, we can manage their happiness. Serious rebellions is rare.

 

Then comes adolescence. Education leads to a healthy challenge, even of parents. The kids look more to their peers and take in signals from a wider field. They start to understand responsibility, and with that comes fear and sometimes anger.

 

In this phase, the teenager takes offence easily (and gives it just as easily). They have setbacks, which can feel like betrayals, especially if they have been carelessly promised an easy ride or happy outcome. In their minds parents can become the excuse, the problem, an embarrassment. And many of us, certain of the effort and love we have invested, can respond with a little bit of condescension and even an exasperated “you don’t know how lucky you are”.

 

So we should not be surprised if we face some rebellion. In most cases, the phase is passed through without too much damage, and we can comfort ourselves that it was a healthy part of growing up, leading to a more mature adult.

 

Sometimes, if the child is cossetted or over-controlled, the rebellious phase is stifled, and then, when it finally arises, it is more extreme and harder to pull back for all parties. In my experience, a stifled adolescence can result in a late rebellion, or other forms of immaturity such as irresponsibility, chronic laziness or even addiction. I have doubts about the health of societies that still have altar boys of eighteen.

 

So, the analogy between the rioters of 2013 (teenagers and older) and teenage boys of every age feels quite strong. And so our experience as parents might offer clues as the best way to respond to today’s demonstrators.

 

First, we should try to celebrate. It is a positive sign that these societies have matured enough to enable a generation to challenge and grow. Demonstrations may not be much fun, just as it is not much fun when your teenage child shuns you, but it serves a positive wider purpose. History shows that the greatest gains for humanity have tended to follow challenges to elites.

 

Next, avoid the insults, the impossible promises, and the demands for gratitude. That is not part of the script. Instead, treat the demonstrators as young adults as much as possible, give them autonomy and respect. The Dutch are best practice in this regard, placing responsibilities and power in the hands of kids of all ages. It can be scary knowing that your 13-year-old is experimenting with drugs and sex, but it will usually lead to a more mature adult more quickly.

 

Of course we have to create as safe an environment as possible for this experimentation. There are bars in The Hague where underage drinking (and more) is tolerated by police, but a careful protective eye is close by if things go too far. The US alternative, banning alcohol in most states until kids are 21, feels likely to be counter-productive to me.

 

In the case of demonstrators, creating the safe environment means avoiding unnecessary provocation, being ready to respond as tolerantly as possible if things go too far, trying to build some mutual respect, and waiting for things to calm down.

 

So Dilma Rousseff in Brazil and the Swedish authorities in Stockholm seem to score at least eight out of ten for their response. The army in Egypt score a belated five, but face a much tougher challenge since the stifled adolescence there has been extreme. And Erdogan in Turkey so far scores two, committing all the sins listed above one after the other.

 

There are many societies around the world which can be compared with stifled adolescents. History warns that the rebellion, when it finally comes, will be damaging. The former Yugoslavia in the 1990’s and Burma today are examples. One day Saudi Arabia will face a reckoning. China is trying to allow some societal growing up, but is it enough?

 

There will be plenty of chances yet for politicians and armies to learn from their experiences as parents. Even when they do, as we parents know all too well, the outcome can still be more a matter of good fortune than judgement.