Ebola and Climate Change

The reaction to the Ebola crisis in the US has not shown humanity at its best. I suppose that if I lived in a part of Dallas where Thomas Duncan stayed or on Staten Island with its large Liberian community, I might also have succumbed to some panic. But it has not been edifying.

The CDC and its spokesman have done an excellent job of balanced communication. If we care to listen, we learn that Ebola only spreads through close contact with an infected person already displaying symptoms. That does not seem to include anything that is likely to affect me, or indeed nearly all of us. But panic has ensued nonetheless. People are walking around in masks, and treating low risk people as though they were lepers of old.

On the surface, Ebola has almost nothing in common with climate change. Yet both can be described as crises, indeed slow moving crises. In the case of Ebola, the timeframe has been most of a year so far, and there have been distinct phases. Climate change is the same, except that the timeframe is a multiple slower.

I would like the world to find a more effective response to climate change. So I wonder if there are lessons to be learned from the response to Ebola that could be transferred to the greater challenge?

Ebola has been around for years, but most outbreaks have been contained. Compared with diseases such as malaria, it is a minor killer, and its limited contagion helps to keep things under control. However, it remains a serious threat. If the scale of infection becomes too great, it can spread exponentially through a community or even a country. And there is also a risk of a mutation with much higher contagion, which could in theory cause a global epidemic.

The main problem with Ebola is where the current outbreak occurred, in West Africa. I am stunned, and ashamed really, of some of the statistics I have heard about the medical immaturity of these countries, with a handful of doctors covering millions of people. In that environment, also one where treatment and burial practices have traditions unhygienic during periods of risk, the disease spread out of control, largely below the radar.

The World Health Organisation, a UN body, is responsible for monitoring and combatting such a situation. But that body has had its funding cynically cut by mean-spirited national governments for decades. Furthermore, it seems to suffer from problems common in corporations, such as a remote head office and jealous local branches lacking key competences. The WHO was asleep at the wheel.

Luckily, we have Medecins sans Frontieres (MSF), staffed largely by volunteers and funded through charity, whose wonderful staff have tried valiantly to contain the outbreak, at great personal risk, while at the same time sounding the international alarm. Luckily we also have Cuba. An international pariah nation sent expertise and money quietly and generously – what can we conclude about the global values of most of us?

Yet despite a growing tide of news stories and pleas, almost nothing happened. When President Obama announced the deployment of troops to West Africa during August, it was almost a surprise. Yet that was the first turning point, since news stories and public awareness started to grow, other nations were shamed into helping too, and the WHO started to wake up as well.

But still the response was nothing like enough, until the second turning point, when My Duncan came to Dallas with Ebola and a Spanish nurse risked the same. Suddenly the public woke up, in its ugly, selfish, bigoted anger and panic. Ebola was everywhere in the news for a couple of weeks. Politicians pandered to the panic, and also started scoring points by blaming their opponents for all sorts of contrived sins. At least on the plus side more money and volunteers and organized help made its way to West Africa. Obama was suddenly blamed for doing too little rather than too much.

Fortunately, the tide seems to have turned in West Africa. The predictions are still dire but no longer quite so catastrophic, and the disease may even be under control in Liberia. Somehow, humanity may be delivering a miracle, through sheer force of will and creativity and teamwork. When a concerted effort is made, the direst predictions are somehow averted.

So let us look at climate change. There are similar phases, but the story is just playing out more slowly.

No one knows how bad climate change could become, yet the worst case is truly catastrophic. Yet it appears to be a long way away, and it is hard to read the information we receive. Was last winter a sign of climate change? If we wanted to panic, there would be ample opportunity and apparent evidence, yet the connection is not apparent.

There are global bodies with responsibility. They are bureaucratic, underfunded, and cautious. They are not good at communication or even lobbying. Just like the WHO.

There are also smaller bodies, funded by volunteers and charities, just like MSF. We are lucky these passionate and talented people exist, and they take personal risks. Yet they are not natural communicators either, and their suggested solutions seem inconsistent and unreasonable, and sometimes they seem unworldly. Most people with real money and real power do nothing substantial. The global response is wholly inadequate.

Now look at the two turning points. In Ebola, Obama, well-briefed, took some unilateral action when he sent in the troops. He spent political capital in doing so, but in the end he acted on global information and conscience, doing the right thing rather than complain about other countries. His action was not actually very helpful or appropriate in itself, but it created headlines and shamed others.

The bigger turning point was when Ebola suddenly became real to Americans in the unfortunate person of Mr. Duncan. When the threat became real, panic replaced apathy overnight. Politicians reacted, and real money and skill flowed in. Power responded when power felt the heat of the threat itself.

Finally, we can take heart from the unfolding miracle of the current Ebola response. Once the human spirit and brain is finally engaged, impossible challenges can be solved.

So, what are the lessons for those of us who would love more global effort on climate change? We need those turning points. I am optimistic that the first one, the leadership turning point, is in the process of being reached. Obama will do what he can. Xi in China starts to do his part. Next year’s climate conference in Paris might achieve something meaningful.

But that turning point is not enough. We need the other one. And here, I recommend some cynical scare mongering to bring things home to Joe public.

They won’t care if Pacific Islands go underwater. They don’t understand statistics and threats in the distant future. Any burst of weather need have nothing to do with climate change, and well-paid cynical lobbyists will encourage apathy.

So we need a good crisis. One that is predicted then starts to come about. I recommend Miami. I believe the city is pretty well doomed already. So give that publicity. Predict how things will be in a year, then demonstrate them as worse.  We don’t so much want science, more some judicious, accurate, scare-mongering journalism.

At least we can take great heart from the last learning. Once the well-funded world starts taking climate change seriously, we will be amazed at the solutions created.

But we need that crisis. The leaders may do their bit, but we need the general public, the selfish, voting, American general public, panicked enough to trump the lobbyists and activate the politicians. Surely that should be possible soon?