Wednesday, May 27, 2020

If we had Leaders...

The current global pandemic has revealed many truths about the structures and norms governing humanity. This has led to the following aspirational charter, signed by leaders representing 80% of the world’s population, 80% of its financial assets and 80% of its weapon power.

The pandemic has demonstrated the scale of the challenge represented by global heating, and the need for radical solutions implemented quickly under a global remit.

It has also demonstrated the bankruptcy of all current systems of government. The nation state as a dominant unit is revealed as too small a unit for some critical challenges and too large a unit for others. An acceptable set of human rights would be universally achievable within one generation were nation states not to inhibit progress. All human beings should have an adequate nutritious basic diet, affordable basic health care, housing which is secure, heated and not overcrowded and lifetime education.

Specifically, the prevalent western model is susceptible to capture by special interests, inadequate provision for many citizens and breakdown of civic responsibility. The Chinese model systematically oppresses minorities and hoards information and power within an elite. The Russian and African models have yet more glaring defects, starting with endemic corruption. While all current models are bankrupt, ample good practices exist to turbocharge human progress.

The signatories of this charter believe positive drivers for human progress include science, open debate, inclusivity, freedom of expression, property rights, justice, globalisation, trade, competition, technology and automation. Apart from unhealthy competition between nations, two other related factors have undermined human progress. The first factor is the reliance on an out dated employment model. The second is the level of return on capital demanded by unrestrained markets. Correcting these two flaws also requires global agreement.

Humans in developed nations (and within a generation, developing ones too) no longer need to toil for an employer, at least for so many hours per week or years per lifetime. Currently this false assumption dominates corporate practices and welfare policies, squeezing out progress, for example via automation, and limiting the civic potential of citizens. The 6% real return on capital squeezes competition and labour and encourages greed, dishonesty and risk. 

To successfully redirect global resources to this new paradigm requires accepting one further fact. War and its threat are uniquely destructive and almost never an appropriate response to disputes. Weapons should be progressively pooled between nations and gradually eliminated.

Taken together, these aspirations and acceptance of drivers and inhibitors of progress lead us to a series of commitments. The current crisis demands urgency and creates opportunities. Budgets must be redrawn, new revenue sources discovered, new employment models introduced, and renewed communities envisaged.

Firstly, all so-called defence expenditure will would pooled and wound down. National procurement budgets will be reduced by 25% per annum, and 50% of all new assets will be surrendered to international bodies. Personnel and maintenance budgets will be reduced by 10% per annum, and 20% of assets per annum will be surrendered to international bodies.

Secondly, a global carbon tax will be introduced, with 50% of the proceeds pooled globally. Part of the global proceeds will be used to fund renewable infrastructure and decommission existing carbon intensive infrastructure.

Thirdly, a global “Tobin” tax on financial transactions will be introduced, all pooled into a global fund. The goals of the fund will be to achieve the human rights, with a bias towards developing nations, but also to reduce corruption and avoidance. Most fiscal matters will remain national or local concerns, but international harmonisation agreements will eliminate loopholes and devices.

Fourthly, nations and localities are committed to phase in funded Reimbursement For Care (RFC) , as a positive refinement to Universal Basic Income. Reimbursable care includes childcare and elderly or disabled care, and need be policed only lightly. A typical adult will be expected to claim 30 hours per week, and this should be sufficient to fund a minimal lifestyle with all human rights, subsidised where required. Those without family members to care for should support other civic needs such as nursing homes.

Citizens can choose to enhance their incomes via paid employment, investment or entrepreneurship. Sales tax will be eliminated on essentials but increased for discretionary purchases. With this overall monetary regime and appropriate competition-promoting regulation, it is anticipated that corporations can aim for a return of around 3% real or more if GDP growth is higher. Some transitional payments will be required, for example for underfunded pensions.

Fifthly and finally, we will make decisive steps towards the goal of universal freedom of human movement within a generation. This will require phased introduction, and be accompanied by transfer payments between nations and obligations loans for those moving between nations.

These steps will require most nations to both pool sovereignty and to devolve responsibilities downwards. Existing international bodies will require new charters, and new bodies must be created. Governance structures should be equitable based on population and financial contributions, and be set up in ways that are easily adapted over time.

Within nations, the bulk of implementation will lie within communities, since the administration of RFC and associated initiatives should be at a local level. Localities will have discretion as to how to specialise, though a share of funds will also be pooled so that that budgets can be higher for communities of greater historical deprivation. Cities will be supported via national and global funds to accelerate development in required needs such as automated mass transit, provision of affordable housing and repurposing of retail and office spaces towards specialised senior accommodation and to arts and leisure.

Implementation of all these actions will be aggressive, with tracking of targets, but also phased and rapid adaptability based on learning. The elements of the program are self-reinforcing, and failure in one area will jeopardise other target, so transparent program management at all governmental levels will be critical.

As humanity, we have a unique opportunity to effect a step change in human welfare. We can end war, ensure a survival planet, ensure efficient and equitable financial structures, end fixed employment and implement free movement, all within one generation.

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