One way to think of the world after Coronavirus is to consider trends that were playing out before. In most cases, I believe the virus will accelerate the trend, because it reduces the forces that used to slow the trend down. Then, depending on whether the trend itself has the full support of society or whether it was just something society tolerated, we will either come out of this with the trend reinforced, or the trend itself will crash into a wall.
An easy example is retail, the way we shop. For years, online retail has been chipping away at bricks and mortar retail. There are solid reasons for that: why go out and queue to park and hack through people to find something that might be out of stock, when a few clicks does the trick. The trend was held back by a couple of factors. Consumers had to build trust in the new method, especially for items like groceries where they liked to observe and feel the goods. Some were slower adopters of anything digital. And the bricks and mortar retailers, despite weakening financial positions, tried anything to keep their loyal customers, via coupons and experiences and pleading to landlords and local authorities to save jobs.
All of this is blown away by Coronavirus. Slow adapters and sceptics have been forced online and like it, even if online providers have struggled to deliver their usual brilliant service. The financial resources offline are being destroyed weekly, and local authorities will also be broke and hardly prioritise keeping moribund institutions open. It is game over. Amazon has won, and the longer this goes on and the further it spreads into the developing world, the win will become global. Amazon would have won anyway, but now they will win more quickly.
Education is another area. The trend to online learning was slow before Coronavirus, held back by habits, poor childcare and entrenched teachers unions. But online learning is wonderful when used in the right places. It has limited use in elementary schools or arts courses, but our son is a civil engineering undergraduate and he has hardly blinked an eye, and nor have his professors. After the virus, courses like his will have a heavy remote component, because everybody wins that way. High schools will also take advantage and improve as a result, because some teachers will have been convinced and authorities will be desperate to save money too.
We might also see a wonderful side effect in the area of childcare provision. Dad’s stuck at home suddenly appreciate the importance of childcare, and those dads include bosses of firms. Those same firms will institute much more home working after the virus, another smart trend that previously had tradition holding it back. So who will look after the young kids? The bosses will finally vote for quality affordable provision by the state, and even insist carers (and teachers) are paid as fairer wage. Working hours and school hours will be better coordinated and staggered to make commutes easier. Scandinavia, here we come.
What about those commutes? This one is more complicated. The clear trend before the virus was towards Uber: more people are living in cities and avoiding the costs of private cars. The special factor here is public mass transit, which will be avoided by many for a while as unsafe. I have heard of people planning to buy cars after the virus precisely to avoid public transit. That will be sad, but some good things may come out of it in the end.
Perhaps the roads will be even more clogged because more people will want to drive. Toll pricing, another trend, will accelerate to dampen this and raise much needed cash. Uber will emerge stronger but will have to raise prices to cover cash shortfalls and maintain investors. So maybe there might be a breakthrough for unmanned vehicles: Uber will want it, authorities will want it and consumers will want it too, and the technology is not far away. We might even see the Holy Grail on this one, unmanned public mass transit, like mini personal taxi pods operating between hubs. That would be wonderful.
In health care, lower ranking staff will be more highly valued, forcing hospitals and the state to stump up higher wages, which may lead to elimination of waste: telemedicine is an obvious opportunity here, and society may also start to question investing thousands in expensive operations for folk in their nineties. In the US, there is sure to be clamour for a state provided health insurance, even if it may still be too early for Medicare for all.
It is likely that climate change might have greater public urgency after the virus, as people feel less invincible and strongman deniers are revealed for what they are. We will still be reluctant to pay, but the energy industry might bail us out. Few politicians will risk coal subsidies and Coronavirus may be Armageddon for oil (I personally hope not for their pension funds though). It will take a while because of the oil glut, but once the dearth of new investments clears that out the energy profile will change.
Gig work will only grow; one sad reason is that employers will be desperate to take back staff on more favourable terms to them, such as contractors. Total employment will also struggle to recover, because firms will bring forward automation and because of the weakness in labour intensive sectors like retail and hospitality. Inequality could get a lot worse, but perhaps governments will fear social unrest and take the chance for radical action. Perhaps the US will create a better safety net, and things like universal basic income may have their day. Might we even see shorter working weeks?
Then we have international trends. One trend before the virus was the collapse of cooperation between nations. So far we have seen no signs of any reversal of that trend, but optimists can hope that it might come, especially if this goes on a long time, a perhaps if there is a triumph of cooperation in finding a vaccine. At least this is one trend that shouldn’t accelerate, though the despots are doing what they can to blame foreigners and consolidate power.
Then we have China versus the USA, a relationship that has been turning ugly for several years but where China has been clearly winning. Again, it looks like the trend will accelerate. First in, first out is always the best option in these situations and China is in a strong position just now. The world will be less willing to toe the line of the US after the pandemic, because practicality will trump ideology, even if US credibility is not totally shot. But the anti-globalisation movement will win for a while at least, because nations will be nervous about fragile supply chains and dependence on others. Sadly, we might even see the acceleration of a bi-polar world, with a US-led and a China-led realm for many sectors. Don’t bet on the US-led one winning very often.
It gives me comfort to note that most of accelerated trends will help humanity, even if there will be losers and bumps in the roads. But the list screams another thought in my head. If we didn’t already think the 2020 presidential election was important, we certainly should now. Most of the good outcomes feel much more credible without the disinfector in chief in office.
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