The momentous events in Washington on Wednesday had a chilling effect on me, even safely distanced in Portugal. We can be shocked. We can be saddened. But I find it hard to understand how anybody could be surprised. A poison has been at work in the body of USA politics, in plain view. And, like many poisons, the only way to eliminate its power is to wait until it strikes and be ready with an antidote.
As so often, Nancy Pelosi said it best with her reference to the day as a possible epiphany. She cleverly drops references to her Catholic faith into her speech, not in a proselytising or grandstanding way like Pence or Pompeo, but gently signalling her belief. January 6this the Christian feast of the Three Kings or Epiphany, and that word has come into everyday language to mean a moment when you suddenly feel that you understand, or suddenly becomeconscious of, something that is very important to you. If things turn out well, we could well look back on the riot of Washington in precisely those terms.
I applaud the Democrats for having been so patient. Attack a poison like this too early and too aggressively and it only becomes stronger. Pelosi did not want to impeach Trump and only did it when his actions became too egregious to overlook. Throughout the 2020 drumbeat of undermining trust in a fair election, and the subsequent “stop the steal” movement, I have often become frustrated at the lack of any fighting back. But they understood, and remained disciplined. Deny the conspiracy, seek to punish its perpetrators, and it only grows, and creates martyrs in its wake.
Instead, the affected parties have to see the poison for what it is themselves for it to lose its potency, and that is why Wednesday was a potential epiphany. Congratulations, Joe and Chuck and Nancy, you showed far more patience than I would have been able to muster, and you deserve your reward.
But will this prove a true epiphany, and will the reward be forthcoming? That depends on the actions of various parties over the coming months.
Perhaps of even more lasting significance than the insurrection this week were the senate elections in Georgia, which offer the Biden team a short window to legislate. At the least, that will stop McConnell blocking the most obvious beneficial steps. We can expect the holding hostage of states and cities to stop, so perhaps there can be an effective New York subway system after the pandemic. Probably the most lasting impact will be the climate change agenda, so John Kerry might have a true, satisfying job to do now.
Biden is smart enough not to try too much else. Stephen Breyer can safely retire from the Supreme Court, but trying to pack it would surely backfire. Perhaps there will be space and time to build back Obamacare with some improvements over the original. The old chestnut of infrastructure can be enacted, with obvious links to the climate change plan. We can expect a strengthening of DACA, but still no comprehensive immigration reform, and little gun control or police reform either. Biden will not want to create hostages to his fortunes in the 2022 midterms.
So Biden’s actions are relatively predictable, and so are Trump’s. He is still playing a long game, with an eye to re-election in 2024. After the setback of this week, he will use his notoriety to build back his cult, and surely will be as effective as ever in generating publicity. Some will be lost to him after the epiphany, but many will return, so long as the conspiracy theories are still out there and the Democrats effectively targeted as hate figures. We should not expect the events of this week to kill the poison, only to delay and weaken it.
My guess is that the Democrats will use the moment created by this week to maintain an attack, but then to revert to caution. There will be lawsuits, but there will still be Trump, his health permitting.
I believe we need to look closely at the actions of two other groups, for both of whom this week may be a turning point.
The first of these is Rupert Murdoch. How will the uncomfortable marriage between Donald Trump and Fox News evolve? It was already strained before the election. Fox is facing a changed media environment, Murdoch is trying to protect his legacy and hand over to his family, and Murdoch will not let his own brand become too wedded to Trump’s. Trump himself will try to cash in on his brand value, perhaps with his own TV channel.
Trump’s brand would look very different without Fox News. He has alternative outlets, but further from the mainstream. With Fox, he can aim for fifty million moderately obsessed fans, without it maybe ten million more extreme ones. The first scenario feels like material for a new presidential run, the second more like a dangerous outsider group. In the end it will be Rupert Murdoch’s decision.
The second group are mainstream Republicans, epitomised by Mitch McConnell. We can characterise McConnell as spineless over the last four years, but in reality his options have been limited. It is credible to take the opposite view and assess his performance as deft – after all, there has been no nuclear war and the constitution has largely held up, while the business elite that is his true constituency has prospered under Trump.
But this was always a fraught path, and McConnell knows this as well as anybody. His own performance on Wednesday, rather statesmanlike, is interesting. With two or four years to rebuild and Trump’s brand wounded, he may want to rebuild his party around another direction.
McConnell knows also that he is playing a dangerous game trying to mount a coup. As has been the case for the last four years, anybody attempting a coup is dead meat unless the coup succeeds, and the odds of success have so far been small. No we face a moment of opportunity. Will he grasp it?
I don’t think so. McConnell is inherently cautious. His own following among politicians is wafer-thin and among the public even less so. The new congressional caucus will be more pro-Trump than the outgoing one. And what alternative platform does he have? Traditional Republicanism is pretty well bankrupt.
On balance, I am sticking to my prediction from November. Trump will learn from Wednesday and promote a less extreme path for a time. The Democrats will return to caution. Trump may start is own media outlet, but he will realise he still needs Murdoch and Fox will largely stay in his stable. McConnell will observe this and there will be no party coup. The events of this week will recede into the background. The poison will emerge more strongly than ever, and will have a credible chance of regaining power in 2024, reverting to bleating about immigrants, China and Biden’s perceived weakness.
I’m sorry that this is not an optimistic projection to start a new year, or even to duly recognise the feast of Epiphany. I hope I am proved wrong.
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