I seem to be surrounded by Covid pessimism at the moment. We just returned to the US from Portugal, where cases are currently among the highest per capita in the world and where the authorities are gradually imposing more and more restrictions in an attempt to keep hospitals from overflowing.
Both in Portugal and in the US, this seems to be a time for a drumbeat of tough Covid messaging. The new US administration wants to demonstrate its seriousness. As the first vaccines are rolled out, both countries want to avoid any premature declaration of victory that might make people lose their discipline.
Business owners in affected segments have been holding on in the hope of brighter days ahead, and now wonder again if they can survive long enough to see them. Meanwhile, the perpetual Trump clickbait seems to have been replaced in the short term by lots of marginally fake news about vaccines. The web is full of discussion about which vaccine is better, horror stories about the fates of some early recipients and doom and gloom about authorities messing up their roll out plans.
I find all this overblown. Surely, unless we are scientists we should just accept that they are all good enough for us if a reputable body is prepared to inject it into our bloodstreams? Programmes like this are bound to have teething troubles as they ramp up a smooth operation. And scare stories about vaccine safety based on one or two cases are just irresponsible.
In the rich world, I believe all this fuss will be behind us quite quickly, and as soon as April it should be quite easy to get vaccinated. The Johnson and Johnson vaccine is close to approval, and having four, or even more, Western vaccines in production should remove the supply bottlenecks quickly, just as logistics ones have been solved.
Yes, there are still tough months ahead and we should maintain discipline. Yes, for some businesses this will mean the end. Yes, there will be plenty more setbacks. But overall we can be more optimistic, because the vaccines are coming, and I believe coming quickly.
By April, in rich countries we will have transitioned into a new phase. Most vulnerable people will have been vaccinated. Excess deaths will start trending downwards quickly. Businesses will be clamouring for restrictions to be lifted. Airlines and other pressure groups and governments dependent on tourism will join the chorus. And those of us who will have been vaccinated will not want to listen anymore, fatigued of deprivation and ready to party.
Yes, I’ll happily wear a mask in crowded places. Yes, I’ll avoid venues with poor ventilation. Yes, I’ll avoid crowded homes. But, with common sense, I will want to party, and so will most others.
So the question becomes how authorities react to this new phase. There is plenty of pent-up demand from the public, supported by demand from businesses. The health risk will still exist but be much lower. Should they introduce new constraints, or vaccine passports, or just allow people to use their own judgement?
I feel vaccine passports would be difficult in practice, except perhaps in situations like international flights. It is hardly fair to issue passports to some while others don’t yet have access to a vaccine. And do antibodies in those who have recovered count the same as a vaccine, given that the level of protection seems to be similar. And for how long should these passports be valid?
In practice I think most of the rich world will quickly evolve into a Swedish type model, with plenty of communication about risks, plenty of encouragement to be vaccinated, activities with very large crowds discouraged, but otherwise reliance on our own common sense. I think we will reach that stage around May 1, much sooner than the general mood currently indicates.
I am also optimistic about many of the lingering legacies of the pandemic. The costs have been huge, most notably for those with family members who have died, but there are reasons to believe some lessons will be learned.
For me the main lesson will be about how we treat our personal health. I am lucky that I am rarely sick, but I think I will be sick even less often in the future. That is because I understand so much more now about personal hygiene and health risks.
My habit of hand washing will become less obsessive after the pandemic, but I will wash more hands more often and more carefully than I did before 2019. I’ll be especially vigilant when entering crowded spaces like the subway or a theatre or airport terminal, probably choosing to wear a mask and certainly sanitising my hands more and avoiding touching nose and mouth. If I am sick I will try harder not to infect others and I’ll be wary of others who appear sick.
It makes sense that flu statistics are way down this winter, and I suspect they will be way down next year and in following years too, and the same will be true of other diseases that personal hygiene can impact.
There will be other positive legacies from this time. Education will be a stronger mix of online, remote and in-person tuition. Healthcare will benefit in the same way. Administrative work will find a happy balance between co-location in offices and working remotely at home. The balance will vary according to the need of the business and the preference of the individual, and all parties will benefit, even those of us trying to use roads or subways at busy times.
I am less optimistic about more fundamental changes, because memories can be short. We all cheered health workers by banging pans on our balconies last spring, but that is not likely to translate into better pay for those same workers once things have returned to normal. We can wish for less inequality and be made aware of people reliant on food banks, but such concerns will probably be overtaken by selfish priorities quite quickly.
In the same way, we can promise never again to lose touch with loved ones, and to remember to count the blessings of movement and culture and family, even to think of our neighbours, but such promises will probably be soon forgotten once life returns to normal. Heck, it won’t be long before people will be happy to vote for populist incompetents again.
Some changes will be subject to waves. The pandemic has opened our eyes to the stresses of a city life and the benefits of lower rents and easier commutes farther away from population centres. That will rebalance rents for a time, but then there will be a wave in the opposite direction, when youngsters will crave the excitement of city life once again. Don’t take predictions of the end of cities or theatre or tourism too seriously, people and markets will find ways to make a comeback before too long.
But before any of these good or bad things can happen, we have to get through this winter and wait for the vaccination programmes to gather momentum. For people in developing or poor or badly run countries, the wait might be longer. But I am optimistic for May, or even April, to see the start of the rebound in rich countries. And then the parties will be legendary – in a cautious way of course.
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